We did not model the impacts of climate change on agriculture or ecosystems. While, in terms of impacts on agriculture, there will clearly be winners mostly at high latitudes and losers particularly in the tropics , it is very challenging to model these impacts. Thus, our solutions model a "business as usual" climate. Rattan Lal reports the maximum global technical potential for sequestration in soils and biomass at gigatons of carbon, or 1, gigatons of carbon dioxide. This maximum could only be reached if all ecosystems were somehow restored to their pre-anthropogenic state, with no houses, farms, or parking lots remaining.
Drawdown's Plausible Scenario sequesters So while it is an impressive impact, it represents only Trees can be cut down or burned, while soils can be returned to tillage or badly-managed grazing. Drawdown advocates aggressive sequestration in both soils and perennial biomass. No, our financials no not include payments for ecosystem services nor do they include a price on carbon. It is assumed that any costs e.
Drawdown land solutions only model costs that are incurred at the landowner or manager level. Protection refers to the total amount of carbon stored in soil and biomass in ecosystems that is safeguarded by the solution. Reduction refers to the much smaller amount that would have been released to the atmosphere due to human activity based on the current rate of destruction if protection had not been put in place.
Repopulating the Mammoth Steppe. Enhanced Weathering of Minerals. Marine Permaculture. Land Use Sector Summary. Sector Results by Introduction The Land Use Sector includes the protection and restoration of high-carbon ecosystems such as forests and wetlands, as well as the production of perennial timber and biomass crops. Ecosystem restoration solutions: Temperate forests — the restoration and protection of temperate-climate forests, resulting in ongoing biosequestration.
Timber and biomass crop solutions: Afforestation — the planting of trees for timber or other biomass uses on degraded land, with biosequestration impacts in soil and biomass, and long-lived products across periods of cultivation. Methodology and Integration General Model Framework Each solution in the Land Use Sector was modeled individually, and then integration was performed to ensure consistency across the sector and with the other sectors.
Thermal climate — includes tropical, temperate, and boreal high latitude or high elevation. Several of the agricultural solutions with the most powerful mitigation impact, like tropical staple trees and multistrata agroforestry , are limited to tropical or even tropical humid climates. Temperate forest and tropical forest are likewise limited by climate. Moisture regime — includes humid millimeters of rainfall or more per year , semi-arid millimeters per year , and arid millimeters of rainfall per year.
Several solutions are constrained by rainfall; for example, bamboo is only suited to humid climates, whether tropical or temperate. Soils quality — includes prime, good, and marginal. While no solutions are limited to soils of a given quality, yields decrease in good and marginal soils. Slope types — include minimal, moderate, and steep. Moderate and steep slopes are more vulnerable to erosion due to tillage, and are also difficult to work with mechanized equipment due to risk of rollovers.
Thus, fully perennial solutions, while applicable on all slopes, are particularly advisable for steeper slopes. Current cover — includes forest, grassland, rainfed cropland, and irrigated cropland. Certain practices like farmland irrigation are only suited to irrigated cropland.
Forest protection is only suited to currently forested areas. Degradation status — each agro-ecological zone is designated degraded or non-degraded. Degraded zones are suitable for restoration and show lower yields. For example, non-degraded grassland is ideal for managed grazing and silvopasture , while degraded grassland may be restored via afforestation or perennial biomass production.
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Degraded forest is suited to restoration via temperate forests or tropical forests. Drawdown Scenario: this scenario is optimized to reach drawdown by using more ambitious projections. The scenario assumes an accelerated early adoption of protection and ecosystem restoration solutions. It projects a median increase of 7. While an estimated million people are undernourished, changing consumption habits have already contributed to about 2 billion adults being overweight or obese. Yields of crops such as maize and wheat have declined in some regions, while those of maize, wheat and sugar beets have increased in others in recent decades.
While forests can soak up heat-trapping gases from the atmosphere, desertification and deforestation can amplify warming due to the loss of vegetation cover and soil erosion. Measures to cut emissions, such as the production of biofuels, biochar - made from biomass - as well as planting trees, will also increase demand for land conversion.
Reducing deforestation and forest degradation could result in a reduction of 0. Ammonia, which is largely emitted by animal excreta and by the application of mineral and organic fertilizers, contributes to the formation of secondary aerosols. Hence, the reduction of its emissions is an important stake for the improvement of air quality. In recent years, control of ammonia emissions has become a major concern at regional, national, and international levels and, since the end of the s, a set of regulations has been put in place. To further reduce ammonia emissions, improve air quality, and optimize costs and benefits requires a better knowledge and quantification of ammonia sources and also an analysis of long-term strategies.
France regularly undergoes peaks of aerosol pollution PM 10 —PM 2. In March , high PM2. Predicting air quality at the regional level is crucial to understand these episodes and to recommend appropriate levers of action in the short term to limit the magnitude of these episodes. Air pollution affects not only human health, but also the overall productivity of ecosystems and crop yields, through increased dry deposition of N compounds and O 3 , which in turn could affect BVOC emissions.
In addition, by modifying plant functioning in terms of evapotranspiration and soil moisture status, ozone deposition may affect the hydrological cycle, which in turn will affect surface but also wet deposition of pollutants and nutrients. We have here a typical example where scientists involved in agronomy, physics, biology, and chemistry should interact to improve predictions of ammonia emissions, transport and reactions related to weather conditions, soil biological processes, and plant phenology, to estimate feedbacks of air pollution on the functioning of involved ecosystems.
However, to solve the problem, cooperation between farmers, urban planners, and decision makers is required to define optimal fertilization dates and a territorial planning of urban and peri-urban areas that accounts for the distribution of agricultural activities around the city.
Many studies have explored techniques to counterbalance the deleterious effects of urbanization on the local environment. On the one hand, green surfaces such as parks, gardens, or green roofs and walls contribute to mitigating the UHI and currently receive strong attention from both scientists and urban planners e. Shashua-Bar and Hoffman, ; Akbari et al. On the other hand, a growing number of studies focus on urban air quality assessment to quantify impacts of urban vegetation e.
Yang et al. Changes in planted species and their surfaces can indeed significantly impact the amount and fate of reactive compounds emitted, such as biogenic VOCs or nitrogen compounds, and therefore affect the air chemical composition in terms of gases and aerosols Ghirardo et al. Nevertheless, feedbacks on air quality by UHI mitigation are not accounted for but could lead to air quality degradation, by affecting pollutant and especially ozone precursor dispersion Lai and Cheng, Indeed, although the role of urban form, urban fabric, and building arrangement and orientation in UHI mitigation was explored in previous studies Stone and Norman, ; Emmanuel and Fernando, ; Shahmohamadi et al.
The knowledge, the instrumentation, and the expertise developed over the last decades regarding land surface—atmosphere interactions and their impacts on local-to-regional climate and air quality could deliver operational and useful outcomes for policymakers and land planners, and thus benefits for populations, activities, and ecosystems. One action that can help bridge this gap is to introduce or re-introduce climate expertise into the spatial planning process. The climate issue has clearly become one of the main priorities of planning authorities throughout the world e.
Bulkeley, ; Wilson and Piper, ; Davoudi et al. However, relatively few planning authorities directly call upon climate experts. Today, more and more urban planning authorities develop in-house climate expertise, with sometimes interesting results. For example, efforts are being made in an increasing number of cities in reduce the urban heat island effect Ren et al. These additional climate skills are nevertheless largely dedicated to urban areas and consequently face difficulties in considering the influence of surface—atmosphere interactions at broader spatial scales.
They generally also hardly consider the interplay between climate and air quality issues. There are, however, a few cases that can be sources of inspiration. This initiative resulted in urban and spatial planning guidance, with the objective to improve the flow of fresh air from the agricultural and natural areas and thus to refresh, clean up, and prevent temperature inversion above built surfaces. The development of local-to-regional actions taking advantage of multiple surface-to-atmosphere interactions can hardly be conceived without using regional meteorological or climate models, since the same land use or land management direction can have very different and even inverse consequences, depending on the context Marshall et al.
This platform allows the numerical modelling of different processes of the city system and their interactions. The developed physical- and urban-based models are forced by socio-economic scenarios of urban development and local climatic scenarios. It is then possible to produce different city projections, from the present day to the end of the century, under different future climate conditions, and to estimate the impacts of these cities on urban climate or on building energy consumption.
Another difficulty to develop a collaborative action lies, among others, in the spatial gap between the respective scales of reference of climate scientists and spatial planners. Climate models have not yet sufficiently been tested at the intermediate spatial scales that are generally considered by planners in their practice. There is therefore a need to develop models functioning at intermediate scales and integrating a description of land surfaces closer to the definitions and representations used by spatial and urban planners. Lastly, we need to give more attention today to the modifications created by land use management e.
For climate scientists, this means identifying levers of action, among those proposed by practitioners, in terms of land use management, that can influence climate and air quality. For planners, this is another challenge emerging, questioning the contours of their field of activity, the discipline focusing historically on land use and surface occupancy.
Land—atmosphere interactions involve many physical, biological, and chemical processes that can all influence each other, and that are driven by the characteristics of the environment in which they take place meteorological conditions, surface properties, etc. To properly investigate the role and impact of land—atmosphere interactions, especially in the context of LULCCs, on local to regional climate and air quality, the most appropriate and comprehensive tools are required. It is difficult today to design experimental protocols at the regional scale that allow us to identify interactions and impacts of specific processes.
When modelling such interactions, one has to recognize that the description of land use and land management areas concerned, type of crops, quantity of fertilizers used and actual seasonality of application, etc. Not taking into account the land surface characteristics certainly biases our projections. Hence, there is a crucial need for a consistent description of surface characteristics in numerical tools, to both improve our knowledge and provide more appropriate information to urban and land planners and stakeholders at the territory and local scale.
Urban and peri-urban areas are of particular attention in this context since land transformation can have big environmental impacts and affect the health and life of millions of people, given the human density in these areas. For example, there is space for considering the links between atmospheric chemistry and land—atmosphere interactions, as a decision parameter for land management, helping to maintain air quality and supporting ecosystem functioning.
This leads us to touch on the notion of ecosystem services, which is an integrated approach that allows us to effectively analyse and examine the ecosystem conditions in terms of whether or not the desired services are being delivered. Ecosystem services are highly interlinked, and any kind of human influence on the functioning of one service will likely have a large number of knock-down effects on other services.
The types of ecosystem services dealing with the climate and the atmosphere come under the category of regulating services, which were identified and categorized in several studies Cooter et al. Nevertheless, the feedbacks of the atmosphere to the ecosystem functioning potentially affect the ability of those ecosystems to provide services to the human population. RSM and JL equally contributed in the conception, outline design, writing, and reviewing of the paper. SuS contributed to writing parts of the paper relative to physical and chemical processes and to reviewing the paper.
NdND has solicited this review in the context of the LabEx BASC, and participated in the conception of the paper and contributed to writing the discussion. MS and PS contributed to writing parts of the paper relative to physical processes. SoS contributed to writing parts of the paper relative to chemical processes. EP contributed to writing parts of the paper relative to biological processes.
All authors participated in the outline design and reviewed the paper.
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Three Big Ideas for Land Use That Could Turn the Climate Tide | Climate Reality
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